Buyers Are Treading Cautiously as Sales Drop 15% in Calgary

Buyers are treading cautiously as sales drop 15% in Calgary real estate. That's the headline. The real story is what's underneath it.

The October numbers

Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) data shows 1,592 sales in October, down 15.3% from last year. Year to date, sales are down nearly 11%. New listings fell 9.4% to 2,928, and inventory sits at 6,173 homes, down 4.6%. The all-types benchmark price is $564,200, down 0.4%.

CREB's chief economist, Ann-Marie Lurie, says much of the pricing pressure is in higher-density housing because of oversupply. Detached and semi-detached prices are more stable. That's true. It's also not the whole picture.

Benchmark price	Oct 2026	Year over year
Detached	$735,100	-0.7%
Semi-detached	$685,200	+0.8%
Row	$407,500	-5.1%
Apartment	$288,800	-7.9%

What we're seeing on the street

The stats make it look like only condos are hurting. They aren't. Every week our conversations with sellers get tougher. Most of them are about price reductions on listings that aren't moving, and it's happening across every price segment and house type. Sellers don't want to hear it. It's still reality.

Here's a recent example. We had a listing we were certain would sell quickly based on every other sale in the area. We've had to cut the price by more than $100,000 over the past three months just to get showings. The home has no garage, and buyers see the street as busy.

In a better market, that home would have sold close to the price of its neighbours that have garages and sit on better streets. In a sliding market, flaws get punished harder. The swings are far bigger than they would be a year ago. A missing garage used to be a small discount. Now it's six figures.

Two markets, and the one nobody's talking about

While city listings sit, acreages on the west and southwest side are selling extremely fast. We're watching homes around Millarville, Okotoks and Priddis, up to $2 million and often well past it, that don't sit on the market for more than a day.

Why? Money. The industries that support this city, oil and gas especially, have paid people very well. So have stock markets and workplace share plans. Those buyers want out of the city but not far from it, and they're putting that money into real estate over $1 million. Anything over $1 million still sells well in Calgary because a lot of people here can afford it. CREB also noted that sales above $1.5 million picked up, though that's under 4% of all activity.

Under $500,000 moves quickly too, because the mortgage payments are more affordable.

The squeeze is in the middle, roughly $600,000 to $1 million. That's where buyers stretch to buy as much house as they possibly can, and where a small change in interest rates makes a big difference to the monthly payment. That's the part of the market suffering most.

Buyers: waiting is the trap

Buyers in that middle band are cautious and waiting. The market has been trending down for more than a year, and they're afraid the bottom isn't in. They want to see what spring brings. Here's the contrarian part: their waiting is part of what's pushing sales down.

Here's our honest advice. Nobody can time the market. Calgary has historically run on roughly seven-year cycles from peak to peak, and we're about halfway through this one. Buying near the bottom now may put you in a better interest rate environment than next year, which could mean a lower monthly payment. There may still be downward pressure on prices. If you're holding for three to five years, you'll be fine. If your horizon is one year, it's probably not a smart buy.

The old line in real estate is that if you wait, you lose. Right now that's true.

And take runs at properties. A home that looks overpriced doesn't mean the seller won't negotiate. Make the offer.

Sellers: your house is worth the most on day one

The biggest mistake sellers are making right now is believing that if they wait, they'll get a better offer. They won't. A home is worth the most the day it hits the market. In a sliding market, every day after that it's worth less.

Look at the trend since the peak in August 2024. The market is eroding slowly, and if that continues, your house will be worth less in the spring than it is today. We're not telling you not to wait. We're telling you to price aggressively either way. If you're selling and buying back into the same market, the timing is irrelevant. If you're selling for maximum dollars to put money in the bank or move to a different market, get on the market as fast as you can. Waiting costs you money.

Pricing too high out of the gate, or being slow to adjust when the market doesn't react, is costing sellers tens of thousands of dollars right now.

And don't be offended by an offer. An offer is not a hand grenade. Nobody gets hurt. You can't sell a home without one, and once you have one, you're in the game.

Bottom line

This isn't one market. Acreages and homes over $1 million are moving. The $600,000 to $1 million middle is squeezed. Everything else is a pricing contest. Buyers, make offers. Sellers, price it right on day one and adjust fast.

Sources: Global News, BNN Bloomberg, CREB. Cycle and trend views are Ken's opinion.
Ken Rigel | 403 207 1748 | ken@krgroup.ca | krgroup.ca