As we head into the final month of 2019, I want to say thank you to everyone that has supported our team this year, and helped us continue to do what we love to do, and that is help people. We also want to thank everyone who has taken part in our many fundraisers for Juvenile Diabetes Research. There will be more opportunities to help in 2019.
November Prices Continued the Long Term Trend of Sliding Down Compared to the Previous Year
For anyone that has been watching the Calgary market for the past 5 years, it's been tough to get excited about much from a sellers perspective. Prices have been steadily eroding since September of 2014, and that trend continued in November. Prices compared to last year (November 2018) have slid another 2%.
It's not all doom and gloom though. Looking at the year as a whole, we are ending it just as we started, with a benchmark price of hovering around $420,000.00 (January 2019 - $421,000.00, November 2019 - $419,000.00). In fact, you can look at this year as a whole, and say the prices were fairly steady month over month. It's just when we compare to the same month the previous year that we see declines.
As we move into 2020 and start comparing current month stats to 2019, we will more than likely see numbers that are very close to the year previous. That is actually really good news, especially if you are buying.
Comparative Stats 2018 - 2019.
That is where the opportunity lies....buying. When prices start to flatten out like this for a full year, people trying to time the bottom of the market start to take notice. The fear of missing the best deals can kick in, and it can bring some purchasers out of the woodwork. If that happens, we can anticipate a fairly steady but flat 2020 as well. It was the same in 2010-2011. Prices were dead flat from the beginning of 2010 to the end of 2011, and a lot of people did very well investing in real estate through the peak of 2014.
“Achieving more stable conditions will take time. Sales activity has been settling in at lower levels and is likely being influenced by the economic conditions and uncertainty weighing on our market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While the amount of supply in the market continues to ease, the persistent oversupply continues to weigh on prices.”
People are beginning to accept the reality of where the Calgary Real Estate Market is. This is what you can consider "average conditions." It's the playing field we are on, and we have to accept the rules of the game. We can't keep comparing back to "How It Used to Be."
RELATED: HOME SELLERS WANT ONE THING...A BUYER. WE HAVE OVER 3000 BUYERS IN OUR DATABASE LOOKING FOR HOMES RIGHT NOW! CLICK HERE TO ACCESS OUR QUALIFIED BUYER PROGRAM FOR YOUR HOME
Units Sold 5 Year Overlap
We're looking forward to 2020. A fresh decade, and a chance for this city to reinvent itself, which is probably 15-20 years overdue. We hope you have an amazing holiday with your family, and a Happy New Year! Thanks again for reading our articles, blogs and watching our videos online. We really appreciate it.
As always, if you or anyone you know is buying a home, or wants to sell Faster, For More Money, & With WAY Less Hassle, pass along our name to them, or let us know who they are, and we'll follow up to see how we can help.
Check out the housing market quick-facts for the month below, and the full stats report here. We'll chat again in 2020!
Team Lead - Ken Rigel Group
Office: 403 207 1748
Cell: 403 835 6338
HOUSING MARKET FACTS
- Detached sales improved in November over last year’s levels, mostly due to growth in the $400,000 – $500,000 range. However, sales in November and overall activity remain low by historical standards.
- Despite some recent gains in sales activity, year-to-date sales remain comparable to last year’s levels and 20 per cent below longer-term trends. However, detached sales have improved in both the North West and South districts this year.
- Improving sales, combined with further declines in new listings, helped reduce inventories in this sector compared to levels recorded last year. However, supply levels remained elevated based on seasonal comparisons.
- Like some of the other sectors, the detached market is slowly moving toward more balanced conditions. However, it is still oversupplied, and this trend continues to weigh on prices.
- The detached un-adjusted benchmark price was $481,500 in November, slightly lower than last month’s levels and two per cent below last year’s prices.
- Apartment sales pulled back this month, causing year-to-date sales to remain comparable to last year’s levels and 21 per cent below long-term averages.
- The monthly decline in sales was mostly driven by pullbacks in the City Centre, North West and South East districts. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales activity improved in the North, West and South East districts.
- New listings rose across most districts, causing city-wide inventory gains this month. Much of the gains were a result of a rise in new-home listings filtering into the resale market. Despite the monthly shift, year-to-date new listings and inventories remain lower than last year’s levels.
- Weaker sales, combined with rising inventories, pushed November months of supply to over seven months. This is higher than last year’s levels of more than five months.
- Persistent oversupply in this sector caused prices to ease. The year-to-date benchmark price declined by more than two per cent.
- Year-to-date sales remain more than six per cent higher than last year’s levels and just below long-term averages.
- New listings eased this month compared to last year and sales improved. Inventories continue to ease from the monthly highs recorded last year. While the attached market remains oversupplied, the market continues to improve over last year’s levels.
- November semi-detached prices eased by two per cent compared to last year. The largest year-over-year declines occurred in the City Centre district.
- Row prices eased by nearly four per cent compared to last year. Annual declines ranged from more than seven per cent in the North East district to nearly two per cent in the North West and East districts.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
- Sales activity continue to improve in November compared to last year. This caused year-to-date sales to rise to 1,146 units, an increase over last year and consistent with long-term averages.
- The rise in sales continued to be met with a pullback in new listings, resulting in inventory declines. This helped reduce the months of supply and November levels are much closer to balanced conditions.
- Easing oversupply has helped reduce the downward pressure on prices this month. However, it was not enough to offset earlier declines. The year-to-date benchmark price in Airdrie was $332,345, three per cent below last year’s levels.
- November sales eased compared to the previous year, but it was not enough to offset earlier gains, as year-to-date sales remained just above last year’s levels.
- The notable adjustment this month was in new listings, which eased enough to offset any declines in sales. This caused further inventory reductions compared to last year. While the months of supply did not shift much this month, year-to-date levels have eased from the previous year and remain just above longer-term averages.
- Despite supply reductions, the market remains oversupplied, which continues to weigh on prices. In November, prices the benchmark price was $394,200, lower than last month and more than four per cent below last year’s levels.
- November sales continued to improve over the low levels of activity recorded last year. The steady gains have caused year-to-date sales to rise above last year’s levels but remain below longer-term averages.
- Inventory levels have also been easing, thanks to a rise in sales and reduction in new listings. While the market remains oversupplied, these adjustments are supporting moves toward more balanced conditions.
- Prices in this market have been slower to adjust. In November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $412,100, lower than last month and over two per cent lower than last year.