If The Market Has Shifted, It Happened January 8th - The Street View Of Calgary Real Estate

 

 

If The Market Has Shifted, It Happened January 8th

 
Has the Market Shifted? It Sure Feels Like it From Our Side of The Street

Hi <<First Name>>,

We have weathered the first month of the year (pun fully intended). One thing is for sure, this market is showing signs of shifting.

If you read my articles, you know I talk about how things feel for us on the street vs. what any forecast says or what the media says. We are on the front lines, and see the changes in the market long before they ever hit the news. January 8th was the day our phone started to ring. It's been one of the busiest months for our team since the start of 2017. 

If you read the real estate news, here's what the board has to say:

"Housing market conditions continue to follow similar trends to last year, with gains in sales.At the same time, there have been further reductions in new listings, inventory and more declines in prices. January sales activity was 863 units, nearly eight per cent higher than last year’s levels. While sales remained well below January activity recorded before 2014, they remain consistent with activity recorded over the past five years. Citywide unadjusted benchmark prices were $417,100 in January. This is slightly lower than the previous month and nearly one per cent lower than last year’s levels."

RELATED: FIND OUT WHAT YOUR HOME IS WORTH TODAY! Get our free, no hassle market assessment for your home (click here)

Calgary Average Price Feb. 2019 - Jan2020

So, the good news....sales are slightly up! 

What I don't like about how we compare stats in our market is that we look at the same month a year ago to decide how the market is performing. So last year compared to 2018 did't look good. However, if you take last year as a whole, without comparison to any other year, it was actually a very stable market. Take a look at the image below. The average price was within $600.00 from the start of the year to the end of the year. Yes, there are seasonal fluctuations throughout the year that are very typical for Calgary, but in a sliding market, the end of the year number is always lower than the start of the year number. Conversely, in a climbing market, the end number is always higher than the start. To see the average price be that close from the start to the end of the year is a good sign of stability. The last time we saw that was 2010-2011. We started 2010 at the exact same price we ended 2011. We then had 3 years of price growth through '12,'13,'14. 



I'm not saying history is going to repeat itself, but I think we should be looking at the big picture that 2019 was the most consistent pricing in this market since 2011. That's a positive sign that the market is stabilizing, and people are adjusting to the reality of where our city is at this point in time economically.

If things keep going the way the year has started, we could be pleasantly surprised that 2019, 2020 were both very stable, consistent years in real estate...something we haven't seen in almost a decade.

To see the full breakdown of the market stats from the Calgary Real Estate Board, click here

Who do you know that is looking to sell their home, and wants to find a buyer? We currently have client looking in nearly every community in the city. Let us know, and we'll follow up with them to match one of our buyers with their home asap! Are you looking for a home? Check out our new home search site that is extremely user friendly and contains everything on the market, as well as homes you can't find anywhere else! Go to www.greatercalgaryhomefinder.com.

Have a great February, and Happy Valentines!

Cheers,

Ken Rigel
Team Lead
Ken Rigel Group
403 207 1748
ken@krgroup.ca


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Detached sales in January improved by six per cent, thanks to growth in all districts except the North East. 
  • New listings declined by nearly 11 per cent due to pullbacks in all areas except the City Centre and the North districts. Combined with adjustments in sales, this caused inventories to ease by 15 per cent citywide.
  • Reductions in supply and gains in sales supported reductions in the months of supply from nearly six months last year to just under five months this January. 
  • Detached benchmark prices eased by nearly one per cent compared to last year. However, the only two areas to record notable year-over-year declines were the City Centre and West, with price declines exceeding three per cent.

Apartment

  • Improving sales were met with gains in new listings, causing inventories to increase by 12 per cent compared to last year. 
  • The gain in inventories prevented any significant adjustment in the months of supply, which remained elevated at nine months.
  • The persistent oversupply continued to weigh on benchmark prices, which eased compared to last month and declined by two per cent compared to last year.

Attached

  • Despite slower sales in the South and South east district, city-wide attached sales improved by four per cent.  At the same time new listings eased by nearly 18 per cent, causing inventories to decline by ten per cent.
  • Improving sales and a drop in inventory helped the months of supply to dip below seven months, a significant improvement compared to last year’s level of nearly eight months.
  • While this segment is trending toward more balanced conditions, persistent oversupply continues to weigh on prices, which trended down over the previous month and eased by over one per cent compared to last year’s levels.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

  • Improving sales and easing inventories helped push the months of supply down to 4.7 months. This represents levels that are consistent with longer-term trends and reflects relatively balanced conditions.
  • The improvements in the supply relative to demand have started to generate much more stability in prices, which have remained comparable to last month and slightly higher than last year’s levels.

Cochrane

  • January recorded a significant gain in sales and a significant drop in new listings. This resulted in a drop in the months of supply to four months, a significant improvement from the 14 months recorded last January.
  • If the improvements continue, this should start to support price stability. However, the recent change has not yet impacted prices, which remain nearly three per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Okotoks

  • Sales activity in town improved to levels consistent with longer-term trends. The improvement in sales helped offset the slight rise in new listings, helping reduce inventories and bringing the months of supply down to levels more consistent with balanced conditions.
  • The steady reduction in oversupply in this market is helping to generate more stability in prices. In January, benchmark prices remained comparable to levels recorded last year.
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