A Start not Unlike 2017.....A street view of Calgary Real Estate
Posted on February 9, 2018 by Ken Rigel
Thanks for taking the time to read...much appreciated.
2018 has kicked off much like 2017 did..with rising inventories, and no real growth in the number of sales in the city. In fact, the amount of homes that changed hands in January was nearly 11% below long term averages for the city. You can see by the graph below that homes are taking a ton longer to sell (on average....keep in mind every neighbourhood and price point is different), and the trend is not in the right direction. Some people think this has to do with the new mortgage rules coming into effect, but in my opinion it's too early to tell what the effect of that will be. We'll have a better idea on that after the first few months have gone by.
Now, the good news is that median prices actually posted some gains in January after nearly 6 months of declines (See the chart below). A welcome change from what we have experienced since last summer.
The biggest issue facing our market is migration. We are in the slow to no growth population cycle which means we are recycling homes to the same population. People come out of the rental cycle and are first timers, there are move up buyers, then move up luxury, then downsizing. The builders are doing a great job of getting new inventory to market, putting pressure on re sale homes as there is no new population base to absorb those homes that are being left behind by people moving into new product. Until we get some significant job growth which leads to population increases, we can expect the market to be fairly flat with mild variances month to month. This doesn't mean it's a bad market...in fact, it's actually a pretty good market to be buying into. You can take your time, compare properties, be a little bit more selective, and not have to settle for something that doesn't feel just right. It's a really good situation to be in if you are a buyer. On the seller side, your home is now competing with a lot more. Small fix ups, cleanliness, staging, and pricing are now more important than ever to put you over the top. Make sure you are ahead of the game, not behind it.
You can read the detailed report in the link at the bottom of the page...
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