It is a really interesting real estate market in Calgary. The headlines yesterday said we had snapped a 21 month skid. Well, sort of. I wouldn't be marching out the band just yet, but there are signs that we may be turning a corner...in houses, not apartment style condos.
September saw detached houses grow in sales for the first time in almost 2 years. Compared to September 2015, we saw an increase of 4%...awesome news! However, the apartment condo market was down 23%. That is an incredible divide in the two sectors. Hard to write national headlines when things are swinging that wildly here.
The streetview of detached homes is this...if you are within 15 minutes drive of downtown, there is not an over abundance of inventory. The market is quite tight. We do a lot of work in this area, and can tell you that it is a challenge to find specific homes for people. The farther you get out though, the story changes. The suburbs (Deep S.E., Far North) are where all the inventory is. This is a little tongue in cheek, but to sell in the far reaching areas right now, pick the lowest priced house that is comparable to you, and beat them by 3%. Inner city, it's more like 1%.
In the condo market, we just don't have the buyers looking right now. Everyone is heading to the inner city, and looking for land. It's the black hole effect of a softer market. Let me explain:
Calgary is a star and a black hole when it comes to real estate. When things start to take off, it explodes like a star from downtown..inner city gets more expensive, then semi suburban ares, suburbs, then acreages..in that order. When the market softens, the reverse happens..it's like a black hole..every thing gets sucked back into the core. The push is to get as close to the downtown as possible, and buy land. This leaves the suburbs and condos with the wildest swings in inventory and prices, where as the core doesn't feel these ripples nearly as much.
We have 27 days until the new wing of the airport opens as well. This could be the game changer the city needs right now. Tourism and foreign investment could follow quickly, which would ease the pressure of the oil and gas expectations this city has. In the short term, it's as is, but 6 months from now, things could be very different here.
Click here to dig deeper into the stats on our brand new website, and have a great Thanksgiving weekend!
October 4, 2016