Here we are, smack dab in the middle of the spring market..and waiting for Alberta election results with bated breath.
To recap what has happened in the first quarter of 2019 on the real estate front, it started off abysmal. January continued the downward spiral the market had ended the previous year on. Major sales declines year over year, and it didn't look good moving forward.
Something changed in February though, and the phone started to ring. The market actually picked up quite a bit for sales, and we saw the total number of units changing hands in March almost match the year before, which was a welcome change. You may remember, every month last year was between 10 and 22% lower in total sales than the same month in 2017.
To have March this year almost catch up to last year is a positive sign. However, we're still not out of the woods here. It's a bit of relief in an overall tough market to sell in, but we are still well below sales numbers for the past 10 years, and have an overabundance of listings on the market to get through.
We get asked frequently if it's the election that is driving the market right now, and I think there is something to it. I believe a lot of buyers are circling the wagons waiting for a chance to buy something at a great value. They feel there may be a change coming this spring that might turn the market around, and they don't want to miss out.
Here is my take....no matter what happens in the election, it's not going to turn the market around rapidly. The economic climate here is so cold, it's going to take a while to get out of where we are.
However, a change in government might bring us a little bit of a bump in sales activity. Residential real estate is not practical...it's completely emotional. It's driven by how do buyers and sellers "feel" about properties, prices, where is the market headed. A really good headline can make changes in the market just like a negative one can, which we have been experiencing for the past few years. I think if the sentiment of the general public after the election is one of hope, you will see a surge in people buying homes. The sky will seem bluer, the grass greener, and that is enough to have people come out of the woodwork.
Will it be short lived? Probably...we'll see a small surge, and then a levelling off again as the world returns to normal.
I, for one, am really interested to see how the market reacts, whichever way the election goes...only a week until we find out!!!
For the full stats and recap from the Calgary Real Estate Board, scroll to the bottom of the page.
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